Doing Nothing is not an Option

13 November 2001

Average world food supplies are around 25% higher per person now than they were 40 years ago. There is enough food produced in the world to feed all of its inhabitants. Real prices are at an all time low. The picture presented by Oxford University's Professor Chris Leaver was a positive one, as he began the 28th Bawden memorial lecture, which opened the BCPC Conference Weeds 2001 in Brighton on 13 November.

But he was quick to point out, "Despite this apparently satisfactory state of affairs over 15% of the world's population, 800 million people, primarily in the developing countries are undernourished. Malnutrition is still the major cause of death in the world and contributes to perhaps half of the nearly 12 million deaths each year of children under five." He continued, "What is even more worrying is that yield improvements from conventional breeding appear to be reaching their limits. At present the annual rate of increase in cereal yields is below the rate of population increase."

And yet the world's population, currently at six billion, continues to grow. Over the next 50 years it is projected to reach nine billion. The problem of feeding all these people is made more acute because of the uneven distribution of croplands. "For example, China has a quarter of the world's population but only 7% of its farmland," he said.

In summary, Professor Leaver felt that the challenge for the next 50 years will be to improve food security for the six billion, to feed the extra three billion and to satisfy the demand for dietary upgrading that comes with increasing economic prosperity. What this means is a doubling or tripling of world food production. As a further complication this increase in food production must be achieved without extending the area of land cultivated and at a time when there is a dramatic decline in water availability.

So how is this food challenge to be met? Professor Leaver had no magic wand, "Crop biotechnology alone is not the magic bullet that will feed the world, nor will it eliminate poverty," he said. "But this technology, together with plant breeding and improved agricultural practice, may provide solutions to some of the challenges and improve the quality of people's lives."

Already genetically improved crops with resistance to herbicides and insects are being grown on some 44 million hectares mainly in North and South America and China - an area approximately the size of the UK. The potential for developing transgenic solutions to other agricultural problems including heat and drought tolerance, salt tolerance, water and nutrient uptake efficiency and bioremediation is expected to be more complex and involve the introduction of multiple genes but this will not always be the case. Tomato plants capable of growing in soils containing high levels of salt have already been developed.

Current applications of plant biotechnology have in the main been driven by the agrochemical industry for farmers in the developed world who provide the majority of the grain staples for the developing world. In future, it is expected that the main thrust will be to increase the efficiency and quality of food production in both the developed and the developing world, thereby going some way to reducing the inequalities and dependence which exist today. The next generation of transgenic plants will:

1. Allow the exploitation of plants as biorefineries producing biopolymers for non-food use and as feedstocks for the chemical industry. Such an approach will have the benefit of producing biorecyclable products in a sustainable and environmentally-friendly manner. A realisation of this potential could go some way to reducing dependence on declining global reserves of oil, gas and coal;
2. Provide nutritionally enhanced macronutrients such as essential amino acids and improved micronutrients such as vitamins. Gene technology will be used to enrich naturally occurring phytochemicals such as anti-oxidants like the anti-cancer compounds isoflavones and anthocyanins;
3. Offer low-cost alternatives to fermentation-based production systems for the expression of foreign proteins with pharmaceutical and industrial value. These include vaccines, antibodies, biopharmaceuticals such as anticoagulants, other blood products and industrial enzymes;
4. Allow the development of the technology for the production and oral delivery of inexpensive vaccines for people and animals. Indeed, vaccines against foot and mouth disease, rabies and common animal enteritis viruses have already been produced and may well be the first commercial products from this technology.

In conclusion he said, "It is both unrealistic and naive to expect GM technology to solve the problems of world hunger and poverty which are complex and do not just depend upon the amount of food produced. It is my belief that the application of plant biotechnology together with conventional plant breeding and improved agricultural practices may provide some of the solutions. If we are to satisfy the real and legitimate environmental concerns associated with modern high input agriculture and the threat of global warming, and still feed the increasing world population in a sustainable manner, we must assume responsibility for fully evaluating this technology to contribute to the security of future generations. Doing nothing is not an option."

For further information contact:
Frances McKim,
BCPC Press Manager
Tel: +44 (0) 1509 233219, Fax: +44 (0) 1509 211932.
Email: edpress@bcpc.org